Introduction to Volcanic Hazards Quantification

Introduction to Volcanic Hazards Quantification describes the fundamentals of volcanic hazard quantification, which forecasts future potential intensity of volcanic activity. The book closely examines the modeling and forecasting techniques that make up Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA). Sections introduce the fundamentals of modeling for different eruptive and non-eruptive phenomena that characterize volcanic activity, including volcanic ballistics and tephra fallout, volcanic gas dispersal, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows and lava domes, lahar and debris flows, and volcanic tsunamis. This book provides a much-needed reference on volcanic hazard quantification for those working to forecast volcanic activity as well as manage emergency preparedness. Additional content covers existing statistical tools for forecasting volcanic activity and managing uncertainties, ranging from methods adopted for both short-term forecasts and long-term models. Finally, several case studies are presented, with examples in the area of Naples, which is threatened by three active volcanoes (Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia), Mt Etna in Sicily, and volcanic islands such as Ischia and Vulcano in the Aeolian Islands.