Forecasting End Strength in the U.S. Army Reserve: An Integrated Modeling Concept

Personnel and career management are critical to a well-trained U.S. Army Reserve (USAR), and end strength forecasts are an important input to recruiting and retention policy decisions. Currently, no single model is capable of providing such forecasts. The authors examined existing modeling tools and developed an Integrated Modeling Concept--a detailed plan for combining outputs from those tools to enable USAR to forecast 24-month end strength.