Crisis Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait

The U.S. Army War College provides an excellent environment for selected military officers and government civilians to reflect and use their career experience to explore a wide range of strategic issues. To assure that the research developed by Army War College students is available to Army and Department of Defense leaders, the Strategic Studies Institute publishes selected papers in its Carlisle Papers in Security Strategy Series. In this paper, Chaplain (Colonel) Douglas McCready examines the most volatile issue of the complex relationship between the United States and the People's Republic of China-Taiwan. He considers the situation in terms of deterrence theory and its application across cultures. Colonel McCready looks at the perceptions and misperceptions of the involved parties; and their interests, capabilities, and possible intentions. He concludes with courses of action and ways to increase the likelihood of successful U.S. deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.