Compound Risk Analysis of Natural Hazards and Infectious Disease Outbreaks

The recent coronavirus disease pandemic has exposed the nature of compound risk, which occurs when two or more shock events overlap, inducing additional pressure on social and physical vulnerabilities. This study explores the potential impacts of compounding risk between natural hazards and infectious disease outbreaks in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) region through simulated compound risk scenarios for each CAREC country. It concludes that compound risk may pose challenges for the CAREC region in terms of elevated costs of response, longer reconstruction timelines, and higher procurement costs; and therefore must be considered when investing in disaster risk management.