Outcome Trap

"e;The Outcome Trap - Why success is a terrible teacher of strategy"e; attacks the fundamental flaw in how we evaluate leadership and choices: Outcome Bias. We tend to judge a decision based solely on its result. If a CEO takes a reckless gamble and wins, he is a genius. If he loses, he is a fool. This book argues that the quality of a decision is independent of its outcome. Strategist Elena Sharp explains that in a probabilistic world, you can make a terrible decision and get lucky (dumb luck), or a perfect decision and lose (bad beat). Focusing only on results prevents learning because it reinforces bad habits that were rewarded by chance. "e;The Outcome Trap"e; teaches readers to "e;result-proof"e; their analysis. It offers a framework for auditing the decision-making process itself, ensuring that you are betting with the odds, not just celebrating a lucky roll of the dice.