Dynamics of Poverty Traps in Kenya

Rural poverty is estimated to account for 63% of poverty worldwide. Land has been identified as a key productive asset in the hands of the rural poor. Through this land, the poor are able to produce food for their growing population and sell the surplus to invest in productive assets. The research in this book built a System Dynamics model to track the dynamic linkages between changes in population, food available and land-holding, and its impact on poverty traps in rural Kenya. The model was fitted with Kenyan population data from 1980 to 2005 and rural poverty headcount data for Kenya over the same period. Parameter values were estimated from several assorted publications. The model was used to test the dynamic policy implications of changing land productivity and wage rates on population and food production trends in the analysis of poverty traps in rural settings.