AI and Early Warning Systems

"Mandel rightfully challenges the conventional wisdom that AI is limited to efficiency enhancements or low-level cognitive tasks and offers a commendable focus on the political and bureaucratic challenges in early warning systems." —Michael Frank, Seldon Strategies

From the September 11 attacks to the coronavirus pandemic, recent deficiencies in early warning systems have been jolting, reflecting startling failures of intelligence and security decisionmaking. Can technological innovation remedy the flaws in threat detection? If so, how? Robert Mandel argues that the answer lies in a hybrid system—"human-in-the-loop" artificial intelligence—and demonstrates through diverse case studies when and how such a system can facilitate the right security-maximizing choices to meet both intelligence and defense needs.

CONTENTS: 

• Key Strategic Puzzles.
• Early Warning Aspirations and Deficiencies.
• Artificial Intelligence Aspirations and Deficiencies.
• Integrating Detection, Innovation, and Security.
• Assessing the Value of Technology: Case Studies.
• Conditions for Successful Exploitation.
• Prudent Use of Technology Innovation.
• Challenges and Hopes for Tomorrow.