Strategic Implications of the Evolving Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Key points from this analysis include: - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)is an enduring association which was originallybrought together by the short-term border securityinterests of its first five members.- Russia believes it plays a leading role in the SCO;in fact, however, the organization is and alwayshas been driven by China, and Moscow's role isvital but secondary. The other member states, former Central Asian Soviet republics with nohistory of modern statehood or governance, arenot equal partners-but their geostrategic locationand, in some cases, natural resources makethem potentially valuable allies for the UnitedStates and other major powers.- The SCO is unlikely to enlarge further. Sinceits inception, the SCO has received several applications for membership. However, any enlargement of the organization could be fraughtwith difficulties, mainly because of conflicts ofinterest between China and Russia and the fearby member states that some new candidates arepotential international liabilities and may createfurther conflict within the organization.