Risk study for the selection of oil prospect portfolios

All activities linked to oil exploration are associated with high levels of risk and uncertainty. The decision-making process linked to oil E&P investments must mainly take into account uncertainties in reservoir geology, production engineering and market economics. Geological risk presents major uncertainties, including: the presence of source rock, reservoir rock, the presence of traps, the presence of sealing rocks and the occurrence of synchronism between generation, migration and accumulation. Despite advances in technology and exploration techniques over the last few decades, geological and financial risks persist and represent determining aspects of the decision-making process in the current context of the oil industry. This makes it necessary to develop specific studies with the aim of minimising potential risks and maximising the financial return on investments made in exploration activities. We therefore conclude that studying the return and especially the risk associated with each project is fundamental in the decision-making process.