Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know

Includes

- Introduction to Decision Making

- Scenario Planning and Prediction Markets

- Group Mechanics

- Heuristics and Programmed Decisions

- Probability and Base Rate Neglect

Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know prepares new managers and leaders to make those tough decisions they face by providing them with a tool box of decision analysis techniques to help them understand and analyze the decisions they make.

The chapters describe key techniques of decision analysis, including:

- Cognitive biases and Prospect Theory

- Heuristics

- Probability and Expected Value

- Bayes Theorem

- Multi-attribute decision making, including the SMART, Elimination by Aspects, and Even Swaps methods

- Game Theory

- Prediction Markets

- Brainstorming and Groupthink

- Black Swan Events.

Each chapter provides clear examples of the decision making tools and includes practice examples to help train the reader in using these critical tools.