Command of Commerce

The conventional wisdom has held that China's economic power is very close to America's and that Washington cannot undertake a broad economic cutoff of China without hurting itself as much, or more. In Command of Commerce, Ben A. Vagle and Stephen G. Brooks show the conventional wisdom is wrong on both fronts. The authors argue that America's economic power has been underestimated because conventional economic measures have ignored America's unprecedented control over the world's largest multinational corporations. They further argue that China's economic power has been overestimated due to Beijing's manipulation of its economic data and measurement issues presented by China's uniquely structured economy. The authors also show Washington could impose massive, disproportionate harm on Beijing if it imposed a broad economic cutoff on China in cooperation with its allies or via a distant naval blockade. Across six scenarios, China's short-term economic losses from a broad cutoff range from being 5 to 11 times higher than America's. And in the long run, America and almost all its allies would return to previous economic growth levels; in contrast, China's growth would be permanently degraded.