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Identification Problems in the Social Sciences
This book provides a language and a set of tools for finding bounds on the predictions that social and behavioral scientists can logically make from nonexperimental and …
Providing National Statistics on Health and Social Welfare Programs in an Era of Change
Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs
How should the war on drugs be fought? Everyone seems to agree that the United States ought to use a combination of several different approaches to combat the destructive effects …
Social Choice with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response
Economists have long sought to learn the effect of a "e;treatment"e; on some outcome of interest, just as doctors do with their patients. A central practical objective of …
Public Policy in an Uncertain World
Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with …
Elicitation of Preferences
Economists and psychologists have, on the whole, exhibited sharply different perspectives on the elicitation of preferences. Economists, who have made preference the central …
Public Policy in an Uncertain World
Public policy advocates routinely assert that "e;research has shown"e; a particular policy to be desirable. But how reliable is the analysis in the research they invoke? …
Patient Care under Uncertainty
How cutting-edge economics can improve decision-making methods for doctorsAlthough uncertainty is a common element of patient care, it has largely been overlooked in research on …
Assessment of Two Cost-Effectiveness Studies on Cocaine Control Policy
Partial Identification of Probability Distributions
Sample data alone never suffice to draw conclusions about populations. Inference always requires assumptions about the population and sampling process. Statistical theory has …
Identification for Prediction and Decision
This book is a full-scale exposition of Charles Manski's new methodology for analyzing empirical questions in the social sciences. He recommends that researchers first ask what can …
Evaluating Food Assistance Programs in an Era of Welfare Reform
This report was prepared in response to a request from the Economic Research Service (ERS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). It summarizes the discussions at a February …