The black swan
  • Sidosasu: Pokkari
  • Kieli: englanti
  • Julkaistu: 200802
  • Sivumäärä: 366
  • Paino grammoina: 304
  • ISBN10:0141034599
  • ISBN13:9780141034591

The black swan


What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', "The Black Swan" shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

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